Changes in the range ofPterostichus melas andP. fornicatus (Coleoptera, Carabidae) on the basis of climatic modeling

Effective monitoring and preservation of biodiversity require knowledge on the distribution range of separate species. Pterostichus melas and P. fornicatus are distributed in Central and Southern Europe and the Caucasus. The study revealed to what extent the territories, included in this range, are suitable for the life of these species according to climatic parameters. According to the points of monitoring and catches obtained from the publications and data base of the global biodiversity fund GBIF and 19 climatic parameters of the WorldClim open data base using the method of maximum entropy, multi-dimensional analysis of climatic niche we distinguished the factors which have the greatest effects on the current distribution of the ground beetles. Modeling of the ranges of P. fornicatus and P. melas for 2050 and 2070 allowed us to determine that climate warming leads to decrease in the areas of ranges, making it more fragmented. The most favourable habitats shift to the north. Comparative assessment of the factors significant for the studied species revealed that in both cases, the amount of precipitations of the driest month and the driest quarter is important. By 2070, under changes in bioclimatic parameters the predicted range of P. fornicatus will decrease by three times, predicted range of the P. melas - by two times. We consider the prognosis modeling of the climate change-driven changes in ranges of model species to be promising.